✦ Market / Price Moves
Arabica: ICE Coffee “C” hovered near ~401 US¢/lb after a choppy week.
Robusta: London robusta remained elevated; active Jan ’26 contract tracking in the mid-$4,3xx–$4,6xx/ton range.
Drivers: Prices whipsawed on headlines that U.S. may ease Brazilian tariffs, knocking both arabica and robusta mid-week; rebound attempts followed.
Takeaway: Lock partial forwards for core SKUs; keep at least one blend with robusta latitude to manage margin until tariff noise settles.
✦ Major Brand / Roaster News
Starbucks holiday cycle: Red Cup Day ran Nov 13; Eggnog Latte returns Dec 2 with a new Eggnog Cream Cold Foam. Expect consumer attention to tilt toward sweet/nostalgic.
Labor heat as nationwide strike actions hit Red Cup Day across 40+ cities, keeping operations and brand narrative in the headlines.
Deal watch: Keurig Dr Pepper × JDE Peet’s market chatter continues around the ~$18B acquisition path and post-deal split.
Costa Coffee reports that Coca-Cola is exploring a sale; Centurium Capital said to be in the frame.
Takeaway: Holiday demand = higher sweet/iced adjacent. Mirror the vibe with a one-off festive drink (and an iced variant) while keeping operations tight in case of supply hiccups.
✦ Supply Chain & Origin Updates
Colombia: Best harvest in decades (14.87M bags Oct ’24–Sep ’25), but 2025/26 output likely lower on tree cycle + rains.
Vietnam: Early season optimism tempered by storm/flood risk hitting Central Highlands during the 2025/26 harvest.
Brazil tariffs: Markets still react to any sign of U.S.–Brazil tariff relief, which would reshape near-term flows.
Takeaway: For 2026 menus, build redundant profiles (e.g., Colombia/Peru swap; Viet robusta as a pressure valve) and keep a storm buffer in green inventory.
✦ Café Trends & Formats
“Experience compounds” are rising: LA’s new Quat (by Kumquat Coffee) blends café, roastery, retail, and coffee omakase.
Iced continues to dominate U.S. ordering, holiday or not, and that’s shaping equipment and bar flow choices.
Takeaway: If you’re testing a popup or space, prioritize show-don’t-tell (visible bar/roast moments, cupping bar) and iced-first workflow.
✦ Equipment / Tech
Electric roasting momentum: Bellwether underscores ~87% CO₂ reduction vs gas; new software aims to make in-café roasting turnkey.
Roast software consolidation: Cropster’s Firescope acquisition signals a push to end-to-end roast/QA control.
Takeaway: If you add roasting, model ventless electric + telemetry; it lowers permitting friction and supports transparent storytelling.
✦ Sustainability / Regulatory
EUDR: Ongoing moves in Brussels to simplify/phase anti-deforestation reporting; industry split between calls for delay and warnings about backsliding.
Takeaway: Start light now: map farm→lot→roast traceability for marquee SKUs; keep a simple compliance file to future-proof EU sales/collabs.
We’ll say it again - the nostalgic holiday wave (eggnog, chestnut praline) is back, now with cold-foam twists. Social content skews to cinematic iced.
Editorial shows keep featuring flash-chilled and design-led cafés; discovery via Reels/podcasts is strong.
Takeaway: Pair each new beverage edition with 1 Reel: (a) origin story + (b) iced ritual shot in warm, low-contrast tones to signal nostalgia.
✦ Notable Products / Launches
Design collabs: Café Kitsuné × Iittala mugs remain a case study in lifestyle tableware branding.
Instant iced innovation: Mad Coffee (Genecis) touts 3-second instant iced tech in compostable cups.
Takeaway: Prototype a SoCal-maker mug and test a flash-chilled single-origin for spring; position as “coastal clarity.” You’re welcome. :-)
✦ M&A / Funding
Coffee-tech platforming: Cropster × Firescope = scale software play across Asia.
Capital flows: Commentary persists around KDP × JDE Peet’s and portfolio restructuring in 2026.
Takeaway: If your operation needs capex (who doesn’t?), consider community equity or pre-order campaigns timed to event season.
✦ Coffee Entrepreneur Resources
SCA education/events portal (standards, certs, World of Coffee San Diego).
Roast Magazine events calendar (Sintercafe; WCLF; Cafe Show Seoul).
Barista Hustle free training articles + online courses.
USDA B&I loan guarantees overview; recent hearings summarize program scope.
Takeaway: Include these in Q1–Q2 ‘learning sprints’ and daily reads: information synthesis is not only critical for building a business, but also for sustaining it.
✦ Quick Hits / What to Watch
Labor headlines (Starbucks) can ripple into consumer sentiment around coffee as “worker-intensive craft.”
Holiday attach: Expect spikes in pastry + seasonal sweet pairings beginning late Nov.
Takeaway: Stock two nostalgic pastries to pair with your seasonal drink and track attach rate.
✦ SoCal Spotlight
Quat (Glassell Park): café + roastery + Atelier Q omakase tasting room—an L.A. template for immersive coffee culture.
LA/SD events: indie cuppings and pop-ups rolling through November (e.g., Quat × Wynd collab; community cuppings at smaller counters).
Better Buzz continues SoCal expansion, including Upland (Inland Empire) and scouting San Diego County sites.
Takeaway: Plan a pop-up at a design-forward venue; consider a micro-tasting flight (flash-chilled vs hot) to showcase origin nuance.
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