✦ Market / Price Moves
Tariff shock → price drop: Global coffee futures slid after the U.S. removed tariffs on Brazilian ag imports (incl. green coffee), easing cost pressure near-term.
Arabica term structure: ICE Coffee “C” forward months eased from recent highs (e.g., Mar ’26 last ~378.7¢/lb on Nov 19).
Robusta retreat: London/ICE EU robusta also fell alongside arabica after the tariff rollback headlines.
Takeaway: Use this pullback to layer partial forwards on core SKUs; revisit menu pricing language to reflect relief without over-promising if volatility returns.
✦ Major Brand / Roaster News
Starbucks labor headline: The “Red Cup Rebellion” strike expanded this week, keeping labor costs and ops risk in the coffee news cycle.
Costa strategy watch: Reports continue around Coca-Cola exploring options for Costa Coffee as performance lags; sale chatter remains active.
JDE Peet’s/KDP: Credit agencies maintain JDE Peet’s on Rating Watch Negative pending the Keurig Dr Pepper acquisition process.
Takeaway: Expect holiday promos + labor narratives to shape consumer sentiment; indies can win with service reliability and community feel while the giants wrestle headlines.
✦ Supply Chain & Origin Updates
Colombia: Best crop in decades (14.87M bags) confirmed last month, but 2025/26 likely lower on tree cycle and rains.
Vietnam: Flooding in the Central Highlands this week hindered harvest, supporting robusta basis risks.
Takeaway: Build redundant profiles (e.g., Colombia ↔ Peru; Vietnam robusta as valve) and carry a weather buffer(extra weeks of green) into Q1.
✦ Café Trends & Formats
Experience compounds: LA’s Quat blends café, roastery, retail, and coffee omakase—a model for immersive, higher-margin experiences.
Iced remains king: National ordering continues to skew iced even in cooler months, influencing equipment and bar flow.
Takeaway: If piloting a pop-up or space, design for iced-first workflow and visible craft moments (tasting bar, roasting view).
✦ Equipment / Tech
Electrification case: Bellwether’s impact data highlights large roasting CO₂ cuts and growing adoption by on-site roasters.
Software stack consolidation: Cropster acquired Firescope to deepen roast QA/telemetry—expect tighter bean-to-cup data loops.
Takeaway: Before committing to gas + afterburner, model ventless electric + digital telemetry for lower permitting friction and better storytelling.
✦ Sustainability / Regulatory
EU deforestation rule (EUDR) noise: Policymakers are weighing phasing/simplification; debate continues between delay vs. integrity.
Operator-level proof: Vendor reports quantify emissions reductions and living-income pricing shares—useful for brand credibility.
Takeaway: Start a simple traceability ledger (farm→lot→roast) for flagship SKUs and publish one sustainability metric/month.
Iced for Gen-Z at home: Nespresso is reallocating >50% of U.S. marketing to cold/iced formats and lighter, nostalgic creative.
Media talking point: Flash-chilled is getting mainstream food-media love as more origin-forward iced alternative to cold brew.
Takeaway: Consider aligning content with iced ritual + origin clarity; shoot one Reel/week featuring flash-chilled vs. cold brew comparisons.
✦ Notable Products / Launches
Design x coffee: Café Kitsuné × Iittala mug line remains a standout in lifestyle/tableware brand building.
Process innovation: Trade press continues tracking flash-chilled/Japanese iced methods for brighter flavor in RTD.
Takeaway: Collab on a SoCal-maker ceramic and a flash-chilled single-origin can for spring—position as “coastal clarity.”
✦ M&A / Funding
Platform plays: KDP × JDE Peet’s continues through approvals; ratings agencies monitoring leverage and integration risk.
Coffee-tech roll-ups: Cropster × Firescope shows investor appetite for infrastructure software.
Takeaway: For capex (canning line, roaster), consider community rounds or event-driven preorders tied to festival season.
✦ Coffee Entrepreneur Resources
SCA education/events portal (standards, certs, World of Coffee San Diego).
Roast Magazine events calendar (Sintercafe; WCLF; Cafe Show Seoul).
Barista Hustle free training articles + online courses.
Takeaway: Include these in Q1–Q2 ‘learning sprints’ and daily reads: information synthesis is not only critical for building a business, but also for sustaining it.
✦ Quick Hits / What to Watch
Price action next week: Does the tariff rollback relief hold after the first repositioning wave?
Vietnam weather: Any further flooding headlines into late November will sway robusta.
Holiday attach: Expect sweet/nostalgic LTOs to set flavor expectations through December.
Takeaway: Track attach rate on your seasonal (hot + iced) and stock two pastry pairings that fit the profile.
✦ SoCal Spotlight
Quat (Glassell Park, LA): Café + roastery + Atelier Q omakase tasting—design-forward “experience compound.”
Better Buzz expansion: New openings incl. Rancho Peñasquitos and Upland; filings hint at Santee in the pipeline.
San Diego Coffee Festival: October event underscores strong consumer energy; good partner scouting ground for 2026 collabs.
Takeaway: Mature programs could plan pop-up tasting (flash-chilled vs. pour-over) at a design-forward venue; explore co-releasewith a North County roaster.
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